The Computer Society of Kenya

Since 1986

cybercafeDaily Nation By WAGA ODONGO

Monday, December 17  2012

News on the wire is that the government is determined to set up a 4G network before the next General Election in March. I feel the smartphone pulsing with vibrations of anticipation as the next phase of the digital utopia is unveiled.

The onward and upward journey of technological progress continues. Your 4G-spot is about to be activated. Full speed ahead, next stop: Konza.

4G supposedly goes like the wind and is vital to get it to be competitive. It is something to do with the Silicon Savannah, I am told. Silicon Savannah sounds like a plan by the government to start issuing out silicone breast implants, but I recently learnt that it has to do with bits of computer code.

Welcome to the dynamic, forward-looking, hi-tech world of planned obsolescence. 3G is still being advertised as everything you ever wanted... till you want something else. The only constant is change. This is the latest attempt to keep up with the digital Joneses.

The last time the government sold licenses to mobile companies for use of 3G technology, Safaricom demanded a refund because they felt Airtel and Orange had got them for cheap. This time they want to present a united front.

But why the hurry? The numbers are sobering. Safaricom, the largest mobile service provider, says its 3G network is used by less than 10 per cent of its subscribers. Its 3G coverage is not countrywide; not all its base transmitting stations support 3G functionality, you know.

Airtel says 35 per cent of its users are on 3.75G. Telkom Kenya says uptake of the 3G is poor, and that a lot of their customers are locked out by the high prices.

yu has never bothered to apply for a 3G licence (in fact, according to the Business Daily, they want to jump straight from 2G technology to 4G. They don’t do odd numbers).

Going by these small numbers (and some people have multiple 3G devices, so the number on the network is an incredibly small elite) 4G, if launched, will be used by a very small percentage of the population, the few who think buffering is a crime against humanity and meet to have victim support groups every time Internet speeds drop below 1 megabit per second.

All service providers are yet to fully recover costs associated with setting up a 3G network, and before they can breathe, the wheel of progress turns and they are left with what should now be considered a telegraph line.

The “3G” and “4G” tags are based on speed. 4G systems are based on LTE (or Long Term Evolution systems) while 3Gs are based on HSPA+.

Recently, scientists have figured ways to ensure that the HSPA+ system can outperform LTE, so would it be wise to claim a generational distinction in systems that could be tweaked to outperform each other?

Using the technical definition, none of the technologies slotted to be rolled out worldwide will be considered fourth generation. 4G is therefore a marketing gimmick and not the actual benchmark set up concerning downloading and uploading speeds.

Safaricom earlier this year upped the stakes by setting up a 42 megabit-per-second network in a few areas which should prove more than adequate for even the most avaricious of data consumers.

In fact, the spurious idea of 4G is further complicated by the fact that the International Telecommunication Union has pointed out that the 3G HSPA+ network could, in some cases, be referred to as 4G.

The speeds you receive also depend on numerous other factors aside from whichever transmission protocol your service provider of choice uses. So it is possible to switch to a faster system and still get slow speeds.

But, tedious arbitrary technological distinctions aside, why would Kenya need a 4G system? Very few handsets can utilise a 4G network, and they cost a fortune.

Even factoring in deflation, these phones will take a very long time to trickle down because in many parts of the country they just want a bloody signal, not an all-singing and all-dancing handset.

4G is all about delivering high-definition video faster and on the fly. Most text-based services or websites are well served with present 3G constraints, and Kenya struggles to produce enough local content that will justify the new increased bandwidth the Information ministry seems so determined to get us on.

On YouTube, which could be a reliable metric on this kind of thing, the Kenyan channel feeds with the most subscribers are news network channels.

Faster internet will thus only end up profiting American companies that peddle video content. Part of the reason television viewers are being kicked off analogue is that the government wants to flog the spectrum to mobile phone companies.

The government stands to make a few billions from this move, so the digital migration of TV sets isn’t just for your own good.

In the triage of telecommunication services, a 4G network is not on the priority list. There are corners of this country where you cannot get any mobile network. A mobile signal for everyone in the country is a more urgent need.

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I smell a rat in this analogue T.V migration business

I recently had a chat with a friend of mine who is paradoxically supportive of the government’s move to set up 4G services but does not think the enforced television digital migration is a good thing, not knowing that the two are inextricably linked.

So the first part of the plan is to clear out analogue TV sets, (and create a market for set-top boxes) and finally sell the licenses for 4G. It is a win-win for everyone but the consumer.

The fees involved in the 4G auction are set to earn the Treasury a few billions at a time when the coffers are skint. Of course these costs will be passed onto the consumer through higher costs for data packages.

Networks will take advantage of its novelty to charge an extortionate premium for it. It is unlikely that they would, however, make enough money from the few hardcore technology enthusiasts, so it would force those of us determined not to take part or unable to join in the bandwagon contributing to the costs of setting up these new shiny 4G network masts.

So the public will pay twice for this, first through set-top boxes for their televisions, and then extortionate charges on the new service.

The costs of data on 4G will enable you to finance a mortgage, considering we live under the tyranny of capped data consumption.

One mobile phone company has already stopped running unlimited data bundle offers as a cost-cutting measure. This is progress for a small economic division.

4G is all about getting fast-on-the-go Internet to the latte-sipping crowd while they are in their lightweight, turbocharged, failsafe, low-polluting, computerised, light-chassis, carbon fibre, chip-run, crash-tested SUV to give them videos to watch as they wait in traffic on the way to the gym.

Yet this classy, iPad-clinging, 4G-anticipating up-there crowd can afford to have broadband at home and in the office.

I believe that lionising the ICT sector is a concerted attempt to shuffle the development cards and draw attention away from the fact that very little progress has been made in the way of “real” infrastructure.

Telephony is best type of infrastructure that can be presented as success. It is new and grows fast. It is invisible, it is set up by extortionate private companies that pass on the costs to the consumer and the government gets to milk the profits.

Do not ask questions about it. It is all around you; inhalable, invisible and indomitable progress.

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